Question
I don't recall seeing this discussed here and if I'm wrong it's been some time.
I have only been in the eBay auction business for about 3 years so I am far from a seasoned pro. I would like to get a perspective of where you think eBay will be, let's say 5 years from now, as far as a buyers marketplace is concerned.
I see things like 700,000 people earning an income on eBay. Apparently eBay stocks are doing quite well which could be interpreted as success on their part. And on and on.
At the same time, I personally get the impression that the buyers are no longer using eBay to the extent they once were and it makes me wonder where it's headed. They're opening new marketplaces in other parts of the world, etc.
Is that because they've hit a wall in America? Do you think the novelty has worn off? Is eBay a sustainable so called "venue"? What do you think will be the outcome for the American seller?
Sorry, I'm rambling. It's Sunday and I actually have nothing to do so there are all kinds of things blowing through the vacuum in my head.
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I try to avoid indulging in speculation (it doesn't pay the bills) but I *can* tell you that I pulled a bunch of customer records from year 2000. Did a "where are they now" search on each of them.
Very few, less than 10%, were still active on eBay. Most quit years ago. One had surrendered her ID and it was taken by someone else.
I would have had to have checked a lot of records to come up with anything resembling precision, but I think you can safely assume that whatever user population eBay is trumpeting -- say, 90 million -- 10% of that is far closer to the truth. The remaining 90% are accounts that have never been cleaned up and in all likelihood will never see activity again.
I believe many accounts went by the wayside when eBay enforced the "you can't use your email address anymore" prohibition in, what was it, 2001.
fLufF
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Answer
First of all that 700,000 number is "full or part-time".
Which in the real world would include anyone who put on ebay their Aunt Matilda's bed pan that they dragged down from the attic in the past year or so.
Simply put the number is a fantasy.
But what is not a fantasy is that the market is so totally flooded with people trying to make beer money by tossing anything available up on ebay for a penny or a dollar with dreams of 'getting the bidding going' - that the possibility of seeing consistently fair prices to support a full time wage are growing increasingly nil.
And as sellers are getting more desperate they are becoming more fraudulent, such as trying to pass reproductions off as originals, not accurately describing flaws, shipping gouging, absurd return policies,outright lies, and a myriad of other dysfunctional behaviours that are absolutely turning buyers off en masse.
The result is that ebay has become not only a wholesale market, but a junk market as well, and has become synonymous with CAVEAT EMPTOR. Because of the schlock serious buyers are going elsewhere, and seasoned collectors regard it as a pure gamble if they bother with it at all. And so will bid only a pittance of what they would offer in the real world.
The future of ebay is that it will slowly slide into obscurity, as the dirty little secret that no one will fess up to. Kinda like Goodwill or the Salvation Army. Who on earth would state those as their clothing boutique??? But it will linger indefinitely as people will always want a market where they can dump stuff before it goes out to the curb, and hope to strike gold. Its like the slots. For people who dont care if they lose money overall, as long as they get the rush of seeing Uncle Jeroboam's pocket watch do a whopping $75. Even if its made of pure gold.... (THEY got it for nuttin!)
Even today eBay has become one big clearance outlet where established businesses have been dumping their stock and returns to clear room for new inventory. Often at a loss, but at better prices than they would get from overstock liquidators.
Eventually listings will diminish as even those listers will find better markets, such as Amazon, where buyers will feel more comfortable at sites where the noise level of sleaze is orders of magnitude lower.
In time other markets like Yahoo are likely to replace eBay for unusual items like axel repair kits for Consetoga Wagons. Especially as those items may take quite a while to sell. And would be too expensive for ebay.
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Well that pretty much agrees with the way I feel about it.
The thing is when I first decided to venture into the auction thing I saw it as a method of advertising. I figured it would at least pay for itself and it's done that. But, after approximately 700 transactions with 100% feedback I can count the number of repeat customers on one hand. I'm sure what a person is selling has a bearing on it, but still, I wouldn't call that a raging success. As for profit, well, that's not even worth discussing.
I think we're all going to end up working for Wal Mart and Home Depot. At least until Wal Mart buys out Home Depot. Now there's a scary thought.
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[quote=I think we're all going to end up working for Wal Mart and Home Depot. At least until Wal Mart buys out Home Depot. Now there's a scary thought.[/QUOTE]
I doubt that Wal Mart or Home Depot will ever take over retail 100%. They may carry thousands of items, but there are tens of thousands of viable products they do not have.
Many buyers like me live in rural areas where stores of this type are the only choice around. Thus, the internet is vital to my search for the right product, whether it be a new bathroom fixture, southwestern food ingredients or wide shoes.
It also is a fact that, in the case of WalMart at least, I have become very soured on their lowest price=horrible quality tradeoff. I do not buy things so they can take a brief vacation at my house before making their final trip to the dump. Ask a mom who buys clothes for chilldren what she thinks of WalMart. She will either tell you they grow up so fast that it does not matter how poorly they are made, or that it is cheaper to buy two of the same thing than one garment that actually lasts.
eBay is a great venue for those of us with specialized needs. OTOH the trend toward chintzy sellers who emulate the worst of WalMart is disenheartening. I remember the days when negative feedback was very rare, and eBay was indeed a community. That has changed. While a neg was once a kiss of death for many sellers, eBay has converted it into a dispassionate metric, and we now talk about what percentage of negs are too many.
As to the future of eBay, I think we are seeing its growth coming from international growth and aquisition, not natural expansion here in the states. eBay has done a good job of upping its profits, and "professionalizing" its opertation. But it has ripped out its very heart and soul - the smaller honest sellers - in the process. By continuing to allow marginal and shady sellers to increasingly dominate its site, it is hastening the march of the honest sellers to their own web sites or to drop out completely.
This has been going on for some time now, and I mourn eBay's lack of long term vision. This growth of borderline sellers has brought with it an erosion of trust from the long time buyers, and this has appened in the name of short term shareholder profits and confiscatory management bonuses.
We all know customer service at eBay is a charade, and the application of its rules arbitrary, and that the managers are blitthely uncaring about this problem. It is the surest sign that eBay is in trouble, and that the long term picture is not a good one under the current management. I place Meg at the top of that list. IMHO, she is eBay's leading con artist and shill.
Larry
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On August 13th I will be celebrating??? my eighth anniversary as a seller on eBay. Celebrate is a passe term - I used to celebrate my eBay affiliation, but no longer.
I still list a few things on eBay (reluctantly) and only as a venue to pointing to 'other' places where I sell and for the record, am doing way better and at less cost than I ever did on feeBay. The early days on eBay were good. Unbeatable, in fact. Today - stink city!
I have bought nothing, nada, zip, SFT (sweet fructose? tweet) on eBay in the last six months. I have bought on Blujay, Yahoo, Amazon and from private websites, but the plethora of dropshippers and junk pedlars on eBay have received nary a penny of my hard-earned buckaroonies.
So is eBay losing its lustre. In a word - YES!
Basically, IMNSHO eBay sucks, bigtime!
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On the flipside of it all, I've been recieving bids from newbies with feedback under 100 and that's a good sign. I've been in the ebay biz for 7.5 years now.. and while it's not crazy auctions, stores do work.
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Geez, you guys make me feel like a newbie! I've only been selling on eBay for 6 years and 2 weeks!!!
And, yes, it's not like the old days...
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As an eBay seller since June 1999, I can answer that question....YES, it's lost lustre!
Sell through rates are hard to believe, the Q-2 reports of 53% increase was even harder to imagine. Painfully obvious to me that book-cookin to titilate Wall Streeters has a higher priority than customer service.
Oh, I still relunctanctly list a small alot along, but it's nothing like I used to enjoy. Death by a thousand knives everytime I have to list. The quicker the eBay cult is driven off of the internet highway...the sooner legitimacy can be seen in the Online Auction & Web store community. JMO
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I have only listed 50 auctions in two months, take that info for what it is worth.
but my ebay store sales are doing really well, which is giving me hope to start up again in September